***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.8 11.7 -0.6 38.9 40.4 10.5 11.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.1 11.9 -0.4 42.4 43.5 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.6 11.4 -0.6 38.1 39.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.3 9.4 -0.7 35.5 38.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.4 9.2 -0.6 36.3 38.8 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.3 7.6 -0.6 37.6 39.4 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 12.0 -0.3 44.2 44.9 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.3 7.5 -0.5 39.4 41.2 3.0 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.4 9.6 -0.6 37.5 39.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.3 8.2 -0.5 39.9 41.5 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.1 8.8 -0.6 37.0 39.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.1 8.2 -0.7 35.8 38.1 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.4 7.7 -0.7 33.8 36.1 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.0 9.8 -0.4 40.9 42.2 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.8 9.9 -0.6 37.1 39.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.5 8.5 -0.7 34.9 37.4 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.5 11.9 -0.2 46.5 46.7 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.7 7.6 -0.3 42.3 43.4 8.4 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.1 11.7 -0.4 41.1 42.4 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.8 5.9 -0.4 41.8 43.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.3 10.7 -0.7 36.5 38.6 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.6 11.6 -0.3 43.5 44.4 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.7 11.2 -0.5 39.6 41.2 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.4 9.5 -0.4 40.6 42.0 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 10.1 -0.7 36.8 38.9 10.3 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 8.7 8.9 7.7 -1.0 28.4 31.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.0 11.0 -0.5 39.2 40.7 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.0 9.6 -0.7 35.4 37.9 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.8 7.1 -0.2 44.9 45.5 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.1 11.9 -0.5 40.9 42.2 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------