***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.5 14.5 0.0 50.8 49.6 11.4 12.5 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.4 14.6 0.1 51.1 49.3 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.9 14.2 14.3 0.0 50.6 49.6 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.8 12.2 -0.1 48.0 48.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.8 12.2 0.0 50.7 50.9 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 10.5 0.2 53.6 52.9 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 11.1 12.6 14.6 0.1 51.9 49.7 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.5 10.3 0.0 50.5 50.9 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.9 12.5 0.1 52.0 51.6 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.7 10.9 0.1 51.2 51.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.4 11.7 0.0 50.8 51.3 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 11.1 0.0 49.5 50.3 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.9 10.7 0.0 50.1 50.6 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.4 12.4 0.0 49.4 49.0 11.6 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.5 12.6 -0.2 45.3 46.5 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.9 11.4 0.0 50.8 51.1 11.0 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.8 14.4 0.1 51.5 49.3 11.6 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.2 10.2 0.1 51.5 51.3 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.4 14.4 0.0 50.4 49.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.2 8.6 0.1 52.1 51.9 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.9 13.6 0.0 50.9 50.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.9 14.1 0.0 49.2 48.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.0 14.0 0.0 49.5 48.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.9 12.3 0.0 51.0 50.5 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.9 12.8 -0.1 48.9 48.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.4 10.9 0.0 50.3 50.2 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.3 13.6 0.0 50.2 49.2 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.7 12.5 -0.1 47.9 48.6 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 8.8 9.6 0.1 52.3 52.0 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.6 0.1 51.0 49.4 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------