***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.7 10.9 12.2 -0.5 32.7 36.1 10.9 11.5 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.2 -0.5 34.5 37.1 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.5 11.9 -0.6 30.5 34.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 7.0 7.0 9.6 -0.8 23.2 28.1 7.4 8.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.7 -0.7 26.1 30.7 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.0 -0.6 31.4 34.9 8.3 8.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.3 -0.4 36.2 38.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.1 8.0 -0.5 32.4 36.0 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 10.2 10.3 10.2 -0.6 29.7 33.6 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.2 8.6 -0.5 31.3 34.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 9.9 9.9 9.3 -0.6 28.5 32.8 10.1 10.6 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.7 -0.6 29.0 33.2 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.3 8.2 -0.7 25.2 29.5 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.8 10.8 10.2 -0.6 29.1 32.4 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 10.8 10.8 10.3 -0.8 22.8 27.0 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 10.3 10.3 9.0 -0.7 25.9 30.4 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.4 12.1 -0.4 37.1 39.0 11.3 11.8 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.4 8.5 7.9 -0.5 31.0 34.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.1 -0.5 32.8 35.7 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.0 6.2 -0.5 33.7 36.9 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.2 11.3 -0.7 28.7 32.9 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 10.3 10.5 11.9 -0.5 33.1 35.8 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 10.4 10.6 11.6 -0.6 30.5 33.6 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.3 9.9 -0.6 30.2 33.7 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 10.3 10.4 10.6 -0.7 27.1 31.7 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 8.8 8.7 8.2 -0.9 21.9 26.8 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.4 -0.6 30.9 34.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 9.0 9.0 10.0 -0.8 23.0 27.5 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.4 -0.5 34.2 37.3 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.9 11.1 12.3 -0.5 33.5 36.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------