***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.8 22.5 -0.5 39.0 41.8 22.4 23.4 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.2 22.6 -0.4 41.6 43.2 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.4 -0.6 36.9 39.8 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.1 20.1 -1.0 28.2 32.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.6 22.7 20.5 -0.9 30.5 34.9 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 20.9 21.0 18.2 -1.1 27.0 31.7 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.6 22.9 22.6 -0.3 43.4 44.7 22.3 23.3 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.5 18.8 -1.0 29.7 34.1 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.9 22.2 21.1 -0.8 32.1 36.2 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.1 19.6 -0.9 30.8 35.1 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.2 20.0 -0.9 29.7 34.2 22.4 23.3 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.3 19.5 -1.0 28.3 32.9 21.6 22.4 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 22.2 22.3 19.1 -1.1 27.9 32.4 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.3 22.6 20.9 -0.7 34.2 37.2 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 22.6 22.6 20.6 -1.1 25.4 29.6 23.0 23.9 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.8 19.6 -1.0 28.4 32.9 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.6 22.4 -0.3 43.7 44.7 22.0 23.0 23.9 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 21.5 21.8 19.0 -0.8 32.4 36.3 21.8 22.6 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.6 22.5 -0.5 39.6 41.7 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.7 16.8 16.9 -0.8 33.1 36.8 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.5 21.8 -0.7 33.8 37.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.8 22.9 22.2 -0.5 39.5 41.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 22.4 22.8 22.2 -0.6 36.8 39.4 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 21.8 22.1 20.7 -0.8 33.8 37.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.3 22.6 20.8 -0.7 34.4 38.0 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 21.6 21.7 18.8 -1.0 28.8 32.9 21.9 22.8 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.6 22.7 21.7 -0.5 38.5 41.3 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 22.6 22.6 20.3 -1.1 25.9 30.4 23.0 23.8 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.5 16.8 18.1 -0.8 33.1 36.8 16.8 17.6 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.8 22.9 22.6 -0.4 40.7 42.7 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------