***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 3.8 4.4 8.1 46.3 31.0 27.1 4.8 8.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 3.9 4.8 7.7 45.6 31.5 27.5 5.1 8.9 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 3.3 3.0 7.0 40.6 24.5 21.7 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 6.0 8.1 11.8 56.3 37.1 32.7 6.8 13.0 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.3 12.2 58.2 35.4 32.7 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.2 9.0 15.6 66.9 40.3 36.7 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 3.5 3.7 6.5 38.2 27.2 23.8 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.9 12.0 56.2 32.6 30.2 11.9 20.5 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 4.6 5.6 11.0 56.3 34.7 30.7 5.1 9.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.6 12.4 56.4 32.9 30.1 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.2 11.0 57.7 35.7 32.6 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 6.4 7.0 9.8 53.1 31.9 29.1 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 8.1 15.2 74.2 45.8 41.5 5.4 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 4.5 5.4 10.1 50.3 29.3 25.7 6.3 12.0 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.9 14.8 74.8 48.3 42.0 5.3 9.4 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.5 6.3 13.6 67.7 42.4 38.6 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 4.2 4.1 6.5 37.9 26.3 23.5 5.6 10.8 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.6 8.0 14.6 64.2 36.7 33.2 6.8 12.4 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 5.8 7.3 8.3 49.4 32.6 28.2 7.4 13.5 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.7 14.5 62.0 35.0 33.4 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.8 5.7 10.0 55.3 34.1 30.2 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 4.8 5.1 7.4 42.1 27.2 24.1 6.1 9.9 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 4.7 6.2 9.3 54.8 34.4 29.2 5.8 10.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.2 6.1 12.3 61.0 34.8 30.9 5.5 11.3 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 5.2 5.5 10.4 49.2 28.9 26.6 6.5 11.8 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.1 6.5 11.8 63.7 37.9 34.8 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 4.7 5.2 9.1 45.2 28.5 25.6 6.2 10.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.4 8.1 14.2 70.7 45.4 39.8 5.1 9.5 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.5 9.0 14.2 62.4 36.4 33.4 7.8 14.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.1 3.6 6.9 40.8 28.7 24.8 4.4 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------