***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.7 14.6 12.4 96.6 62.7 45.4 5.4 9.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.4 12.3 92.9 61.4 47.8 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.2 13.6 12.0 93.1 60.8 45.1 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.5 17.5 16.9 113.1 68.3 54.8 5.0 9.7 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.2 16.8 112.7 68.0 53.8 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.5 23.7 106.1 65.0 55.9 4.9 8.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.6 11.5 85.7 58.2 44.8 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 20.7 25.5 19.0 109.1 66.4 54.4 11.5 17.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.1 16.4 110.9 67.5 51.5 4.2 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.7 18.1 19.4 111.0 66.9 53.2 5.5 10.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 9.4 13.0 15.5 111.9 67.8 53.3 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.1 12.9 15.6 111.3 67.5 54.3 5.0 8.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.7 19.9 110.4 66.7 55.9 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.2 16.1 98.0 61.8 49.1 5.4 10.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.4 17.4 124.6 71.5 55.8 2.7 4.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.1 13.7 17.5 111.9 67.7 55.8 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.0 11.6 81.8 57.6 43.2 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 20.8 22.9 115.3 68.0 56.0 7.6 12.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.4 12.7 99.7 63.7 49.0 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 18.7 25.0 111.3 66.4 56.8 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.7 13.6 105.7 65.8 48.4 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.4 14.2 13.2 98.8 63.6 46.6 4.8 9.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.0 13.2 106.2 65.6 49.7 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.2 16.7 17.7 105.5 64.4 52.1 6.4 11.2 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.2 17.2 104.9 64.9 51.3 4.2 8.0 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.2 14.3 17.6 115.8 68.4 57.9 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 13.5 15.5 98.5 63.0 48.7 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.8 16.6 116.5 69.4 55.1 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.4 22.5 23.5 114.8 67.9 56.5 8.7 14.2 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.9 11.8 91.3 60.3 45.7 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------