***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.5 19.7 14.2 102.1 64.3 49.5 7.8 13.4 20.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.9 15.7 16.6 114.0 67.7 54.1 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.5 14.8 12.6 86.4 56.6 45.6 7.5 12.4 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.9 21.2 16.4 101.4 63.8 48.7 9.2 15.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.7 19.7 14.7 86.7 57.5 44.0 9.3 15.9 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.6 12.6 19.5 81.5 53.0 42.7 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.1 17.7 119.7 69.6 55.0 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.7 18.1 16.3 81.1 53.5 42.2 9.0 16.4 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.6 12.3 14.5 81.8 55.0 41.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.5 16.4 17.1 80.8 53.5 41.2 9.3 15.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.3 12.5 13.2 82.4 55.2 42.0 6.4 10.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.4 11.9 12.3 76.8 52.7 41.7 6.4 11.1 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.7 14.8 76.5 51.1 41.8 4.9 9.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.3 15.6 16.3 80.5 54.1 44.4 8.3 14.0 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 16.9 17.5 120.1 70.2 51.8 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.3 11.8 13.8 80.8 54.2 42.9 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.7 17.7 115.0 68.1 53.5 5.0 8.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.3 11.3 18.8 75.1 49.9 40.1 6.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.1 17.8 15.2 105.4 64.6 51.9 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.0 13.3 21.6 83.5 53.1 42.8 7.5 12.3 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.8 14.6 12.5 83.7 56.5 43.5 7.1 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.6 13.7 16.2 108.7 66.0 52.4 6.5 9.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.7 13.7 89.9 58.8 47.6 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.8 12.4 15.3 73.6 49.9 40.9 7.1 12.4 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 16.6 17.7 100.6 64.0 51.5 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.1 10.0 12.4 79.2 52.7 41.8 5.2 9.2 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.6 20.8 17.9 105.3 65.7 52.3 8.4 13.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.9 16.1 103.8 64.3 47.8 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 10.0 18.2 19.4 76.3 50.6 41.1 10.5 17.9 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.4 17.2 15.7 110.1 66.3 52.8 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------