***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.5 12.1 11.7 83.4 59.2 44.4 5.0 9.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.2 11.7 78.9 57.2 44.3 4.1 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.4 13.3 12.1 83.4 59.1 46.9 6.2 10.4 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.3 18.4 14.8 95.6 62.5 49.1 8.4 13.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.2 14.5 92.5 61.6 48.7 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.1 18.4 21.5 98.6 62.8 49.7 9.0 13.8 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.3 11.3 77.0 56.0 43.7 3.2 7.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 12.6 29.1 17.4 99.2 63.0 49.6 13.2 21.2 31.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.4 12.8 14.5 92.6 61.7 49.7 6.2 9.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 16.6 17.6 95.0 61.7 49.2 7.8 12.5 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.6 14.3 13.4 94.5 62.4 48.2 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 6.0 15.4 13.8 101.7 64.7 49.4 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.8 15.5 16.6 100.7 64.1 50.2 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.0 22.0 16.6 90.7 61.5 48.3 8.7 15.6 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.5 19.4 14.8 112.8 68.8 56.0 6.1 11.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.3 15.4 14.5 96.2 62.8 49.4 6.5 10.9 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.3 11.1 74.6 54.3 42.4 3.9 7.9 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 19.6 20.6 97.0 62.0 49.3 8.9 14.4 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.4 11.8 82.1 58.7 45.1 3.5 7.6 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 18.4 22.0 100.5 62.5 51.0 7.6 13.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.8 11.9 12.4 90.5 61.6 48.3 5.9 9.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.8 13.9 11.7 82.7 57.3 42.7 4.5 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.7 12.5 86.3 60.7 46.3 4.7 9.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.7 20.2 17.0 92.8 61.9 49.1 8.8 14.8 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 5.3 12.4 14.8 88.8 59.2 45.2 6.0 9.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.2 14.7 13.9 96.7 63.2 48.7 5.4 9.8 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 10.5 13.8 82.5 57.5 44.2 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.7 15.5 14.6 98.3 64.1 51.7 7.6 11.5 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.3 24.0 20.9 97.2 62.1 49.4 11.0 17.7 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.0 11.7 79.1 57.7 44.8 4.3 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------