***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 60.8 48.2 46.4 79.6 43.4 41.6 39.9 53.5 68.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 33.5 42.2 48.3 81.2 44.8 41.9 33.6 46.1 60.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 36.7 40.6 43.7 73.7 36.9 36.3 37.5 51.2 67.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 76.8 68.8 60.0 88.7 49.5 44.9 54.3 69.1 85.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 40.7 52.5 58.1 84.9 45.5 42.2 41.7 56.4 73.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 47.7 58.0 80.4 87.9 45.7 41.9 49.6 61.0 72.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 30.2 37.8 47.1 78.4 42.9 40.5 29.9 43.7 59.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 76.6 91.2 64.7 84.5 42.6 40.8 81.8 99.0 117.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 38.4 47.2 56.4 83.3 43.7 41.1 39.5 52.3 66.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 48.9 58.7 66.5 83.9 42.3 40.6 51.5 65.3 80.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 37.4 47.3 53.0 84.0 44.6 41.8 39.6 51.3 63.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 37.0 47.0 51.4 83.0 43.2 40.7 39.7 52.2 65.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 36.1 46.8 66.7 89.4 47.8 43.7 37.8 48.4 59.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 51.2 59.7 59.1 78.7 39.1 38.7 53.7 71.1 90.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 52.8 54.8 64.6 104.7 60.9 53.9 39.0 48.5 58.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 40.8 50.8 59.4 87.3 47.5 43.7 41.9 52.5 63.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 30.0 36.7 46.9 76.1 41.1 39.1 30.1 44.7 61.8 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 52.1 63.7 76.9 86.5 44.0 41.9 55.8 68.1 81.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 63.8 51.8 48.1 82.3 45.3 42.2 41.5 55.7 71.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 49.6 62.1 83.1 88.6 45.1 42.2 53.4 65.6 78.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 37.0 45.7 48.4 81.4 43.1 40.4 39.1 50.6 62.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 36.4 45.5 48.5 80.8 43.5 41.1 36.6 50.9 68.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 56.9 45.7 48.7 82.3 44.7 41.7 37.0 49.8 64.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 52.2 60.3 62.2 81.8 40.9 39.9 53.9 68.4 84.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 61.0 50.3 60.0 83.7 45.2 42.8 40.6 54.1 69.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 37.1 46.8 55.7 87.4 46.3 42.4 37.9 49.4 62.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 61.4 48.7 56.1 80.9 43.8 42.1 39.9 54.1 70.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 56.0 53.5 61.4 95.0 53.9 48.2 41.9 51.3 61.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 70.8 83.2 77.9 86.5 44.1 41.5 74.3 87.8 101.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 35.4 43.5 46.1 78.3 43.0 40.7 35.7 49.2 64.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------