***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 14.0 14.1 3.6 96.3 94.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 12.3 14.7 13.8 3.3 96.0 94.0 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.9 16.3 13.8 3.4 96.0 94.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 9.0 10.6 11.0 2.6 91.7 89.1 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.4 12.2 11.4 2.7 93.5 91.4 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 9.0 10.1 8.7 2.1 89.9 86.7 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 12.1 14.2 13.7 3.2 95.2 93.2 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 4.3 6.2 9.4 2.8 94.4 92.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.2 12.1 3.0 96.4 94.5 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.0 12.8 10.4 2.9 95.8 93.9 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.6 10.9 2.7 94.9 92.7 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.3 9.9 2.6 93.1 90.8 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 10.2 11.2 9.3 2.1 90.2 87.0 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 11.6 13.5 12.1 3.0 96.2 94.7 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 12.0 13.2 12.3 2.6 92.5 89.5 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 11.6 13.1 10.2 2.3 91.6 88.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 12.2 14.0 13.3 3.1 95.3 92.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 9.1 10.8 9.5 2.8 95.8 93.9 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 11.9 14.1 13.8 3.4 96.6 94.8 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.5 7.4 2.9 95.9 93.9 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.0 13.2 3.1 95.3 93.5 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.4 13.4 3.1 96.2 94.0 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.5 13.7 13.7 3.5 97.1 95.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.9 11.8 3.0 96.2 94.6 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 11.8 13.8 12.9 3.3 94.9 93.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 9.9 10.5 8.7 1.9 83.8 81.8 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.6 15.1 13.4 3.4 95.5 93.5 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 9.9 10.8 11.2 2.3 89.7 86.6 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.7 11.3 8.9 2.9 96.9 95.0 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 12.2 14.5 14.0 3.4 96.2 94.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------