***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 12.4 13.1 -0.2 46.8 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.8 12.9 -0.2 45.4 49.6 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.6 12.9 -0.1 48.7 51.5 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.2 10.9 -0.2 44.8 48.3 7.4 8.5 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 10.8 -0.2 45.4 48.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.3 8.8 -0.2 44.8 47.4 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.7 12.9 -0.3 44.4 48.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.1 8.9 -0.2 46.0 48.7 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.4 11.2 -0.2 46.0 49.2 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.3 9.6 -0.2 45.6 48.6 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.2 10.3 -0.2 46.1 48.7 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.3 9.6 -0.2 45.6 48.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.0 -0.3 42.5 45.5 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.0 11.1 -0.2 45.2 49.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.4 11.5 -0.2 45.7 48.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.5 9.8 -0.2 44.4 47.3 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.0 12.6 -0.4 42.9 47.9 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.9 8.9 -0.2 45.0 48.5 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 12.9 -0.1 47.1 50.8 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.0 7.0 -0.3 44.1 47.4 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.4 12.2 -0.1 46.9 49.7 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.2 12.5 -0.4 43.0 48.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 12.7 -0.1 48.3 51.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.5 10.9 -0.1 47.0 50.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.6 11.6 -0.3 44.6 48.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.1 -0.5 39.4 42.7 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.3 -0.3 44.7 48.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.4 11.1 -0.2 45.1 48.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.1 8.1 -0.2 44.8 48.2 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.0 13.1 -0.2 46.5 50.1 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------