***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 13.5 14.5 0.2 53.4 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.5 14.3 0.0 50.4 50.6 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.4 14.3 0.2 53.3 53.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.1 12.4 0.2 54.0 53.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 12.2 0.2 53.8 53.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.9 10.3 0.2 55.2 54.1 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.6 14.3 0.0 50.5 50.9 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.4 10.2 0.0 49.4 50.0 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.0 12.6 0.1 52.2 52.3 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.8 10.9 0.0 50.6 51.1 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.6 11.7 0.2 54.8 54.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.8 11.0 0.1 51.7 51.6 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.1 10.6 0.2 54.0 52.8 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.5 12.5 -0.1 48.9 49.7 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.0 13.0 0.2 53.8 53.7 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.1 11.4 0.2 55.3 54.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.6 14.0 -0.1 47.5 48.3 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.2 10.2 0.0 48.9 49.8 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.5 14.3 0.1 51.6 51.7 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.2 8.3 -0.1 47.5 48.4 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.0 13.6 0.1 52.8 52.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.8 13.9 -0.2 46.8 47.7 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.2 14.1 0.1 53.0 52.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.9 12.3 0.0 50.4 51.0 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.2 13.0 0.1 52.9 52.7 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.5 10.6 0.0 50.8 50.0 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.6 13.7 0.1 52.8 52.7 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.0 12.6 0.2 54.4 54.0 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.7 9.5 0.0 49.3 50.0 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.7 14.5 0.1 51.8 51.9 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------