***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 23.3 21.7 -0.3 46.2 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.5 21.5 -0.4 44.5 47.0 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.5 21.7 -0.4 45.2 47.7 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 15.9 19.9 -0.4 43.5 46.6 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.5 20.0 -0.5 43.1 46.5 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.1 21.8 17.6 -0.6 41.8 45.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.1 21.4 -0.4 44.9 47.2 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.2 18.2 -0.7 40.6 44.4 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.0 20.4 -0.5 43.4 46.7 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.0 22.7 19.0 -0.6 41.9 45.4 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.0 19.4 -0.5 42.6 46.1 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.1 19.0 -0.6 41.1 44.8 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.1 18.4 -0.7 40.3 44.0 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.1 19.9 -0.6 41.7 45.1 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.6 20.3 -0.3 44.8 47.2 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.9 23.6 19.0 -0.6 41.5 45.1 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.5 21.1 -0.5 43.0 45.6 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.2 18.2 -0.7 41.2 44.7 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.0 21.5 -0.4 44.8 47.3 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 17.0 15.9 -0.8 38.8 42.7 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.2 21.2 -0.4 44.5 47.4 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.5 22.9 21.0 -0.7 41.3 44.3 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.4 21.4 -0.4 44.8 47.4 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.9 22.6 19.9 -0.6 42.7 45.9 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.2 20.2 -0.3 45.0 47.7 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.6 22.1 18.0 -0.8 37.9 41.6 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.2 20.9 -0.3 45.8 48.1 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.3 20.0 -0.5 43.2 46.2 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 17.1 17.2 -0.7 40.5 44.1 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.3 21.7 -0.3 45.2 47.6 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------