***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 27.1 19.9 117.2 68.5 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 15.6 18.3 21.6 146.1 77.2 59.1 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.7 17.7 22.2 136.1 74.4 57.3 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.7 18.7 20.1 103.9 62.5 49.3 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.7 20.7 105.8 63.8 54.0 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.8 22.6 102.3 60.9 50.8 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.4 17.8 20.9 137.5 74.8 58.4 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 34.3 45.8 32.2 164.5 81.6 71.8 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.1 20.5 105.9 63.5 53.3 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 18.7 19.6 26.6 127.7 71.4 61.8 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.9 18.3 23.6 132.1 73.0 63.0 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 20.8 27.6 28.9 168.4 81.9 71.3 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 14.3 16.2 26.2 133.7 73.8 63.6 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 22.8 24.9 25.4 132.9 73.6 63.1 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 17.5 21.9 127.7 72.0 53.4 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.3 16.1 23.2 123.2 70.0 59.9 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 20.6 24.7 21.4 146.9 77.2 60.0 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.3 20.0 26.0 120.7 69.4 60.6 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.1 28.4 21.6 143.6 76.5 59.4 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 18.7 23.2 32.6 147.7 78.8 70.2 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.4 19.5 108.9 65.3 52.5 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.3 19.2 22.8 150.7 78.0 61.7 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 19.6 20.9 21.8 135.6 74.2 59.5 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.5 22.5 23.2 121.3 69.7 58.4 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.3 12.2 16.9 82.5 53.1 42.9 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 16.2 22.8 31.0 167.2 83.1 72.0 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.5 14.3 18.0 95.0 58.4 46.0 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.9 17.1 21.7 119.0 68.5 54.4 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 25.5 28.7 28.3 133.0 73.7 65.1 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.2 22.7 22.0 142.8 76.4 57.6 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------