***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 16.5 18.7 132.3 73.5 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.7 14.9 19.5 127.8 72.3 61.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 18.6 19.8 18.5 124.7 71.5 61.1 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 20.0 21.4 23.7 131.8 73.2 59.9 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 17.6 20.2 24.9 146.8 76.9 65.1 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 15.3 16.1 33.8 128.9 72.2 64.1 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.9 15.6 19.7 126.9 72.0 60.7 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 27.1 28.8 24.6 133.3 73.8 62.1 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.4 19.1 24.0 145.6 76.6 65.2 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 22.6 23.9 25.7 135.7 74.2 63.2 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.8 17.8 22.6 144.1 76.3 63.5 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.8 15.0 22.2 143.8 76.2 63.2 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 12.6 15.4 30.5 149.1 77.7 67.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 22.0 23.4 25.1 130.5 72.9 63.6 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.8 21.4 123.2 70.8 58.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.8 19.7 27.1 149.3 77.7 66.4 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.9 15.4 20.1 131.6 73.4 61.2 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 22.2 23.5 28.2 131.4 73.0 64.0 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.6 15.9 19.2 127.5 72.3 61.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 22.6 23.6 31.3 130.3 72.8 64.1 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.0 15.3 20.1 138.7 75.0 62.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.1 20.5 19.9 133.0 73.7 62.8 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.3 16.5 19.8 129.0 72.7 62.2 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 19.5 20.8 24.5 130.1 72.8 63.9 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.3 17.6 23.5 134.3 73.9 61.7 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.1 17.7 28.4 151.4 78.2 66.8 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 17.2 19.4 22.2 133.6 73.8 61.2 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 12.4 13.4 24.1 135.5 74.3 61.8 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 24.7 26.0 28.6 130.5 72.8 64.1 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.7 18.9 125.4 71.6 60.6 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------