***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 13.3 16.2 117.6 68.9 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.4 13.7 15.9 111.0 66.4 49.5 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.2 16.8 15.1 114.5 67.6 52.2 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.9 21.8 18.2 101.1 62.8 51.9 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.1 22.0 17.8 102.5 63.6 51.9 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.4 14.8 25.2 97.1 59.6 50.1 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.4 16.2 106.7 64.6 47.6 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.7 28.7 21.3 112.3 66.8 55.0 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.9 17.2 106.2 64.9 51.2 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.6 21.8 20.5 109.8 65.9 53.2 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.7 15.3 17.1 101.1 63.0 51.2 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.6 18.1 18.1 108.9 65.9 54.2 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.6 21.5 101.8 62.7 52.1 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 20.2 19.9 123.9 70.7 56.0 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.7 16.7 17.1 103.1 64.4 52.4 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.2 14.5 18.6 97.3 61.5 51.1 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.4 15.5 105.1 64.2 48.2 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 17.0 22.7 113.3 67.1 54.9 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.2 17.7 15.5 115.4 68.0 51.3 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 17.7 26.9 111.4 66.1 56.0 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.9 15.9 15.0 108.1 65.6 51.0 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.7 13.8 15.7 113.4 67.2 51.2 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 14.9 15.7 121.1 69.9 53.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 18.7 19.0 116.1 68.2 54.7 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.1 19.5 110.6 66.0 52.5 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.7 19.2 99.5 62.0 51.6 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.3 19.2 19.5 116.4 68.2 51.9 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.1 15.5 17.5 99.4 62.5 51.2 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 26.4 23.0 112.3 66.6 54.9 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.7 15.6 15.9 113.7 67.4 50.3 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------