***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 21.8 15.9 124.5 71.6 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 20.6 14.7 126.7 72.1 57.4 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.6 22.0 15.2 126.3 71.9 54.8 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 23.6 17.7 121.6 70.7 53.9 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.3 17.6 125.7 71.9 54.5 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.2 20.3 23.2 112.1 68.0 57.4 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.7 18.6 15.4 126.6 72.0 57.5 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.7 34.2 18.4 120.9 70.5 56.4 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.5 18.2 17.4 128.9 72.7 54.5 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 22.5 19.0 124.0 71.4 56.3 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 18.2 16.0 121.4 71.0 55.1 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.1 19.3 16.0 122.0 71.1 54.8 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.0 18.3 19.6 116.9 69.6 55.7 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.7 30.2 17.7 114.0 68.2 56.5 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 18.3 16.0 121.5 71.2 54.4 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.9 18.7 17.9 121.3 70.8 55.9 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.7 20.5 14.5 130.5 73.0 59.1 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 26.5 21.2 121.3 70.4 56.6 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.6 20.7 14.2 124.2 71.3 56.6 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 23.2 22.5 115.4 68.5 57.1 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.5 15.3 125.2 71.7 53.2 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 23.8 25.9 13.9 131.4 73.2 58.9 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 18.0 14.1 117.4 69.3 55.0 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.5 26.4 18.2 120.2 70.1 55.9 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.5 17.7 18.3 117.3 69.4 53.0 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.7 17.4 119.9 70.4 56.1 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.2 18.5 122.1 70.7 54.1 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.7 18.4 17.1 122.8 71.3 55.1 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.0 29.2 21.0 115.2 68.5 56.1 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.7 15.1 125.8 71.8 56.1 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------