***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 -2.1 18.6 20.1 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.4 -2.1 17.8 19.2 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.6 -2.2 15.9 17.5 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 4.7 4.6 6.1 -1.9 17.7 19.7 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 6.6 6.4 6.8 -2.1 16.2 18.0 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 5.7 5.7 4.2 -1.9 16.6 18.1 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.5 -2.0 19.5 21.1 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 0.3 -0.1 3.8 -2.3 13.3 15.2 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 7.7 7.7 7.2 -1.9 19.0 21.0 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 7.6 7.5 5.0 -2.2 15.5 17.5 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 7.3 7.2 6.5 -2.0 17.1 19.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 5.9 5.7 5.1 -2.1 15.8 17.8 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 7.2 7.1 5.7 -1.7 19.2 21.1 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 8.3 8.1 6.5 -2.2 14.1 15.9 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 9.7 9.7 8.5 -1.1 29.7 31.4 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 7.8 7.7 6.1 -1.8 18.1 19.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 8.9 8.9 8.2 -2.1 18.0 19.4 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 6.1 5.8 4.3 -2.3 13.6 15.5 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 8.4 8.3 8.4 -2.1 16.8 18.2 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 2.7 2.3 2.3 -2.5 11.3 13.0 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 7.6 7.5 8.1 -2.1 16.8 18.6 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 8.0 7.9 8.2 -2.2 15.1 16.4 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 8.1 8.0 8.2 -2.2 15.7 16.9 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 8.1 7.9 6.6 -2.1 15.3 17.2 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 7.8 7.8 7.7 -2.2 17.3 18.9 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 6.6 6.4 4.3 -2.1 15.3 16.9 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 8.1 8.1 8.2 -2.1 18.7 20.4 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 7.2 7.1 7.0 -1.6 22.3 24.2 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 4.5 4.0 3.4 -2.4 11.8 13.7 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 8.3 8.3 8.6 -2.1 17.7 19.2 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------