***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.5 10.6 -1.0 32.3 35.0 10.5 11.4 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.0 10.7 -0.6 39.0 40.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.4 10.9 -0.8 35.4 37.6 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.4 8.3 -0.7 35.8 37.6 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 8.9 9.3 8.7 -0.9 33.2 35.6 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.1 6.3 -0.7 34.3 36.8 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.9 10.7 -0.6 38.6 40.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.2 6.4 -0.6 37.3 39.6 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.5 9.1 -0.5 39.5 41.3 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.4 7.5 -0.5 39.2 41.2 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.1 8.4 -0.6 38.2 40.2 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.6 8.1 7.3 -0.6 37.3 39.4 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.1 9.5 7.1 -0.7 34.5 37.1 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.0 8.9 -0.5 39.0 40.6 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 10.1 -0.3 43.2 44.2 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 10.0 10.5 7.8 -0.7 35.1 37.4 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.4 10.7 -0.4 42.5 43.6 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.6 6.8 -0.6 38.6 40.7 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.1 10.7 -0.6 39.0 40.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.6 -0.8 33.9 36.9 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.2 -0.8 35.2 37.6 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.6 10.7 -0.5 41.1 42.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.6 -0.6 38.5 40.2 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.4 8.9 -0.5 40.5 42.2 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.1 9.4 -1.2 29.5 32.5 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.0 6.4 -0.8 33.5 36.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.5 10.0 -1.1 31.1 33.9 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 8.9 -0.5 39.6 41.1 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.4 6.0 -0.6 37.0 39.5 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.0 10.8 -0.7 37.1 39.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------