***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.3 14.8 1.0 66.1 61.1 11.5 12.4 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.7 14.8 1.2 70.4 63.8 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.4 15.0 1.1 70.3 63.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.1 12.2 1.0 68.3 61.4 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.5 12.0 0.7 64.0 59.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.5 10.0 0.9 68.3 60.7 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.7 14.8 1.1 69.0 62.9 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.3 9.7 0.7 64.7 58.5 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.5 12.2 0.7 64.6 59.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.4 10.6 0.7 64.5 58.7 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.1 11.4 0.8 65.6 59.7 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.5 10.5 0.8 66.8 60.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.7 10.1 0.7 65.4 59.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.3 12.2 0.8 65.6 60.4 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.8 13.5 1.1 71.1 63.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.8 11.0 0.9 67.4 60.7 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.8 14.7 1.2 70.2 63.5 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.0 9.8 0.7 65.1 59.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.6 14.8 1.2 70.8 64.1 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.8 7.5 0.5 60.6 56.2 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.6 13.8 0.9 66.4 60.9 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.1 14.4 1.1 69.7 63.4 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.3 14.5 1.1 70.4 63.9 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.7 12.0 0.9 67.5 61.4 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.2 12.9 13.3 0.8 64.4 59.6 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.3 9.8 0.8 67.4 60.6 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.4 14.1 0.9 64.8 60.2 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.7 12.5 1.0 69.9 62.3 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.6 9.0 0.6 62.7 57.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.8 15.0 1.2 69.8 63.5 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------