***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.2 11.8 -0.4 38.9 42.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.4 11.8 -0.2 44.9 46.4 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 12.4 13.0 12.0 -0.3 41.4 43.8 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.8 9.3 -0.3 40.9 43.4 7.5 8.2 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.4 9.6 9.5 -0.5 35.0 38.6 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.2 8.6 7.3 -0.3 39.4 42.0 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.5 11.8 -0.2 44.6 46.2 11.1 11.6 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.0 3.2 7.0 -0.5 33.9 37.8 3.2 3.8 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.8 -0.3 40.0 42.5 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.5 8.0 -0.4 36.4 39.6 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.3 9.0 -0.3 38.2 41.2 10.2 10.7 11.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.5 8.0 -0.4 37.1 40.2 8.4 8.9 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.6 9.8 7.9 -0.3 37.7 40.8 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.2 9.6 -0.4 36.8 40.2 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 11.0 0.1 53.8 52.7 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.8 8.6 -0.3 39.3 42.1 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.2 11.8 11.6 -0.1 46.6 47.4 11.4 11.9 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 8.8 7.3 -0.4 35.0 38.5 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.5 11.8 -0.2 44.2 45.8 11.1 11.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.8 4.9 5.1 -0.7 27.7 32.9 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.6 11.1 -0.4 38.7 41.6 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.5 -0.2 43.5 45.2 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.0 11.5 -0.3 42.2 44.3 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.7 9.5 -0.3 39.6 42.3 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 10.4 10.7 10.5 -0.6 34.0 37.9 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.0 9.4 7.3 -0.4 36.4 39.7 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 10.7 11.1 11.2 -0.5 36.6 40.0 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.3 9.8 9.9 -0.1 47.0 47.8 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.4 6.5 -0.6 31.1 35.6 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.5 11.9 -0.2 43.5 45.4 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------