***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 18.9 17.2 16.4 -3.8 8.7 11.0 20.8 22.4 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 19.1 17.9 16.6 -3.7 10.5 13.2 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 19.2 17.8 16.4 -3.9 9.2 11.8 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 12.4 11.2 13.5 -3.5 9.8 12.7 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 19.3 17.5 14.3 -4.1 7.1 9.8 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 17.9 15.9 11.9 -4.1 6.7 9.8 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 18.8 17.8 16.6 -3.6 11.1 13.5 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 6.9 5.1 12.1 -4.1 7.2 10.5 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 18.7 17.1 15.5 -3.9 8.2 11.3 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 18.7 17.1 13.3 -4.1 7.9 11.0 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 18.8 17.1 14.6 -4.1 7.5 10.3 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 18.2 16.6 13.4 -3.8 8.6 11.9 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 18.9 17.3 14.2 -3.9 8.1 11.2 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 19.0 17.4 15.0 -4.2 7.7 10.4 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 19.7 19.1 16.7 -2.9 13.7 16.5 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 19.5 17.8 14.1 -3.9 7.9 11.0 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 18.5 17.6 16.5 -3.5 12.8 15.5 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 18.1 16.4 12.3 -4.3 7.1 10.1 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 18.7 17.3 16.6 -3.8 10.0 12.8 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 13.4 11.4 10.1 -4.4 6.2 9.4 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 18.9 17.3 16.1 -4.1 7.8 10.5 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 19.0 17.9 16.4 -3.7 11.2 13.9 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 19.0 17.8 16.4 -3.8 9.7 12.6 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 18.6 17.0 14.7 -4.3 7.6 10.5 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 19.1 17.4 15.1 -4.1 7.1 9.3 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 18.4 16.9 12.5 -3.8 8.8 12.2 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 18.9 17.4 15.8 -3.9 8.0 10.2 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 19.7 18.8 14.8 -3.2 11.7 14.8 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 13.1 11.3 11.6 -4.4 6.8 9.8 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 18.8 17.6 16.7 -3.7 10.2 12.7 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------