***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.3 20.5 -1.0 36.6 39.1 21.9 23.6 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 21.6 23.0 20.8 -0.7 40.0 41.7 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.7 20.6 -1.0 36.4 38.8 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.2 17.6 -1.0 35.2 37.8 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 22.0 22.3 18.2 -1.5 30.5 33.8 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 20.5 20.6 15.7 -1.6 28.4 32.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 21.4 22.7 20.8 -0.7 40.6 42.3 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.0 16.0 -1.7 27.9 32.0 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.5 21.9 19.0 -1.3 32.2 35.4 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 21.3 21.6 17.1 -1.6 29.8 33.4 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 21.5 21.8 18.2 -1.5 29.7 33.2 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.2 17.2 -1.4 31.0 34.5 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.8 22.3 17.4 -1.4 31.2 34.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.0 18.6 -1.5 31.2 35.2 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.2 19.9 -0.6 40.5 42.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 22.2 22.7 17.7 -1.4 31.2 34.4 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.1 22.7 20.8 -0.4 44.1 44.9 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 21.0 21.1 16.3 -1.7 28.9 32.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.2 22.4 20.7 -0.8 39.1 41.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 15.7 15.7 13.8 -2.0 25.7 30.4 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.1 19.9 -1.3 32.2 35.4 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 21.5 23.0 20.6 -0.5 42.3 43.8 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.7 20.5 -0.9 38.1 40.4 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 21.2 21.5 18.5 -1.5 30.5 34.2 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 21.5 22.1 18.9 -1.2 32.9 36.0 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.4 21.7 16.5 -1.2 33.3 36.2 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 21.5 22.3 19.8 -1.0 35.3 38.1 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.7 18.4 -0.9 36.5 38.9 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 15.7 15.9 15.4 -1.8 27.6 31.8 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.8 20.8 -0.8 39.1 41.1 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------