***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 25.0 24.7 23.5 1.2 65.6 61.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 25.3 25.1 23.7 1.4 67.8 62.2 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.3 25.1 23.9 1.4 67.3 62.2 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.1 21.5 1.4 68.7 63.7 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.5 25.1 21.7 1.1 64.5 61.2 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.6 19.5 1.2 65.5 61.4 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 24.9 24.8 23.7 1.4 67.8 62.3 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.2 20.0 1.1 64.0 60.2 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 24.8 24.4 22.0 1.1 64.4 61.1 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 24.8 24.3 20.8 1.1 63.9 60.5 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 25.1 24.7 21.5 1.2 65.3 61.4 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 23.9 23.7 21.3 1.3 67.2 61.9 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.1 24.9 20.5 1.3 66.5 61.7 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.3 24.5 21.5 0.8 60.0 57.5 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 25.8 25.9 22.6 1.6 72.0 65.7 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 25.7 25.6 21.2 1.4 67.8 62.7 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.7 24.6 23.6 1.5 68.5 62.7 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 24.3 23.8 20.2 1.1 63.4 59.9 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 24.8 24.6 23.7 1.3 66.8 61.6 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 19.6 19.0 17.6 0.9 61.9 59.0 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 25.0 24.7 22.9 1.1 64.0 60.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 25.2 24.9 23.2 1.2 65.6 60.8 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.3 24.9 23.5 1.2 65.1 60.7 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.1 21.7 1.0 62.9 59.6 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 25.1 24.7 21.7 1.0 63.2 60.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.8 20.8 1.8 72.8 65.5 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.9 24.5 22.6 1.1 64.3 60.4 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 25.8 25.9 21.9 1.6 70.9 65.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.5 18.9 19.2 0.9 61.6 58.7 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.0 23.7 1.4 67.8 62.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------