***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.0 18.1 24.1 140.1 75.6 66.9 4.5 8.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.0 17.3 20.7 140.0 75.5 66.9 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 15.5 18.8 24.9 143.0 76.3 66.7 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.0 25.3 25.9 130.2 72.2 63.7 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 19.3 24.6 30.3 155.0 79.5 69.9 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 21.7 24.4 30.7 135.0 74.2 65.7 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 15.1 17.8 20.1 137.2 74.7 65.9 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.1 33.1 32.2 124.5 70.8 61.1 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 19.2 20.3 27.2 132.9 73.5 64.0 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 19.2 20.1 33.4 127.9 72.1 62.3 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 17.9 21.0 30.4 147.7 77.6 66.9 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.0 21.8 27.1 132.8 73.6 63.5 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.6 20.5 33.4 160.6 81.7 70.7 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 22.5 24.1 30.7 129.4 72.5 63.8 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.8 18.6 110.1 66.6 56.7 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 17.6 21.5 29.6 150.5 78.9 68.8 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.3 19.9 18.1 122.4 70.3 62.4 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 20.9 32.7 124.7 70.9 60.6 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 23.7 27.6 21.5 140.4 75.5 66.9 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 17.9 31.2 117.7 68.2 58.7 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 19.7 22.5 26.6 140.6 75.8 66.2 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.1 16.0 18.8 125.8 71.3 63.8 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 18.4 21.7 23.3 140.1 75.5 66.8 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.8 25.7 30.0 134.9 74.0 63.8 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 21.8 29.1 30.6 163.1 81.3 71.8 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 16.0 18.5 27.3 140.7 76.5 65.9 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 20.5 24.7 26.8 149.2 78.0 69.0 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.6 24.3 120.4 69.7 61.0 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 25.8 31.7 121.8 69.8 59.5 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 18.5 22.0 21.5 140.1 75.5 66.8 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------