***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.6 16.8 96.7 60.5 50.0 4.6 8.9 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.9 14.3 92.9 59.2 48.5 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.2 18.1 104.9 63.0 51.1 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 19.1 23.5 120.8 69.6 56.2 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 15.3 22.8 119.0 68.9 55.8 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.2 13.1 23.6 106.7 63.7 55.3 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.3 13.5 88.7 56.8 46.1 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 26.5 30.4 28.7 143.5 76.2 63.5 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.9 24.5 124.4 70.8 57.5 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 21.5 25.6 29.8 144.9 76.5 62.8 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.6 24.8 129.9 72.4 58.9 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 13.2 23.2 126.9 71.6 59.6 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.3 23.8 115.9 67.7 58.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 20.6 26.6 120.1 69.2 54.1 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.0 22.0 125.9 71.4 57.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.4 23.5 118.5 68.6 57.5 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.7 12.5 82.0 53.6 43.8 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 22.4 25.2 31.6 140.1 75.3 61.5 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.6 15.9 100.4 62.1 50.7 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 22.4 28.0 31.7 148.1 78.0 65.2 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.9 21.1 115.2 67.5 55.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.1 14.3 85.2 55.4 44.4 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.6 18.4 111.9 66.3 53.6 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.4 19.5 27.0 124.0 70.5 56.4 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.2 20.0 98.8 61.0 49.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.8 19.6 100.8 62.0 53.1 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.0 18.4 95.7 59.9 49.3 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.8 12.3 23.3 125.5 71.2 57.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.0 28.1 32.3 141.0 75.9 62.7 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.3 15.1 96.1 60.7 49.3 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------