***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.2 15.9 16.9 94.1 61.0 48.8 5.6 11.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.1 15.6 94.5 61.8 48.6 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.8 19.0 106.0 65.5 50.7 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.6 22.0 20.3 101.0 63.3 50.3 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.3 23.5 21.2 109.5 66.0 50.5 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.0 23.1 98.6 60.4 49.0 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.2 14.3 86.7 58.3 45.9 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.9 29.6 24.3 115.8 68.0 52.0 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.9 17.4 22.7 114.2 67.7 50.9 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.9 22.8 25.9 115.6 68.0 51.9 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.1 16.9 20.4 113.0 67.2 51.2 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.8 18.9 20.6 114.1 67.6 51.8 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.5 15.3 21.7 106.3 64.2 51.3 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 18.1 25.6 111.2 66.6 53.5 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.7 15.9 18.3 97.5 62.5 50.4 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.3 15.3 20.3 104.5 63.8 49.9 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.6 13.7 84.7 58.1 45.0 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 17.2 27.9 114.8 67.5 53.2 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.5 15.9 17.3 102.7 64.7 50.2 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 18.0 26.1 114.5 67.0 51.2 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.0 16.1 20.3 108.1 66.0 50.8 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.7 16.5 100.3 64.1 50.0 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.9 19.6 112.2 67.7 52.2 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 18.4 25.1 114.1 67.6 53.6 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.0 19.5 97.5 61.8 48.9 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.5 14.9 18.9 101.2 62.6 49.1 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.2 18.0 93.4 60.3 47.9 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.1 15.0 19.4 95.8 61.3 49.5 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.5 26.9 27.3 114.9 67.4 52.7 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.4 16.4 96.7 62.6 49.0 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------