***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.0 14.8 88.3 59.2 48.3 5.3 9.8 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.1 12.9 83.0 57.3 45.8 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.4 15.8 14.7 90.5 59.8 46.8 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.2 22.4 21.0 115.9 68.6 53.2 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.4 15.5 19.0 113.9 67.9 52.2 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.5 19.0 21.5 107.0 64.9 53.6 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.4 12.1 79.5 55.6 44.6 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.9 33.5 21.9 120.7 69.7 56.1 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.0 15.0 18.7 107.8 65.6 48.9 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 19.9 22.1 111.7 66.6 51.9 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.9 16.7 17.6 114.6 68.1 53.1 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.2 18.7 18.4 120.3 69.9 55.8 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.7 20.0 108.0 66.0 53.4 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.1 23.3 20.1 91.6 59.6 46.5 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.1 19.3 114.8 68.9 53.1 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.0 17.1 18.7 111.3 67.1 53.7 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.9 11.6 77.2 55.2 42.5 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 23.2 23.9 108.3 65.4 52.3 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.6 13.6 84.8 58.0 46.1 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 22.5 23.4 113.3 67.1 56.7 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.2 17.7 107.0 65.8 49.5 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.0 14.5 13.1 84.1 57.8 43.8 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.6 12.6 14.1 84.2 57.7 45.4 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.5 21.8 20.2 100.8 63.0 48.4 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.0 18.8 100.0 63.2 50.1 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.6 16.5 18.2 114.0 68.3 53.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.5 16.1 88.6 59.2 48.1 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.6 17.5 20.6 115.8 68.9 53.4 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 27.8 24.2 111.6 66.5 54.5 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.8 13.2 84.5 57.5 46.7 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------