***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 60.0 63.0 72.6 104.7 60.4 53.5 39.9 53.6 68.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 52.8 52.8 63.5 102.0 58.5 51.5 31.8 45.1 60.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 60.1 67.8 76.7 111.3 64.8 55.7 38.4 52.8 69.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 78.0 90.2 90.8 116.9 68.7 58.3 55.4 70.6 87.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 77.2 83.0 93.4 124.7 73.8 61.9 42.2 56.7 72.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 66.5 72.9 98.8 112.2 66.3 56.5 49.6 60.7 72.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 28.7 47.8 60.0 97.4 54.9 48.7 29.4 43.2 59.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 119.3 127.3 107.1 126.0 76.4 64.1 79.9 96.2 113.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 58.9 70.9 93.2 120.3 71.3 59.4 40.4 52.5 65.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 84.2 90.1 111.2 124.9 75.1 62.7 52.4 65.4 80.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 66.7 72.3 93.3 127.0 75.8 63.1 40.7 51.6 63.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 71.1 76.8 89.3 123.9 74.5 62.1 40.0 52.7 67.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 53.3 66.6 98.9 123.1 73.8 61.5 37.4 47.9 59.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 81.2 91.9 103.0 113.4 66.7 56.3 54.8 72.1 91.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 38.0 58.8 78.3 111.7 65.1 55.0 38.9 48.7 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 58.0 69.0 92.1 121.6 72.5 60.6 43.4 53.4 63.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 54.8 46.2 55.8 91.2 50.6 45.1 30.9 45.8 63.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 83.2 86.3 116.1 121.6 73.4 61.3 56.8 68.0 79.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 65.0 69.3 68.4 106.7 61.8 54.3 42.3 57.1 74.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 81.8 87.2 112.4 122.7 75.4 63.2 52.7 64.7 77.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 56.4 66.1 85.8 118.1 69.4 58.5 39.5 50.8 62.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 60.2 57.2 62.7 98.4 56.2 49.9 36.3 51.2 68.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 56.6 63.2 75.4 112.0 65.4 57.3 36.8 49.6 63.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 86.3 87.8 102.3 118.9 70.6 59.2 54.1 68.0 82.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 59.6 70.0 89.0 114.3 66.8 57.9 40.1 53.7 68.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 36.6 62.6 84.2 114.2 67.7 57.4 37.1 48.5 60.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 60.3 64.2 79.2 106.2 61.4 54.2 39.2 53.5 69.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 56.4 61.8 87.5 114.2 67.0 56.4 43.0 51.9 61.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 103.9 109.3 115.5 122.2 74.5 62.0 72.6 86.0 100.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 58.0 59.7 66.1 104.0 59.9 52.6 36.3 50.3 66.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------