***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 12.7 13.5 0.4 60.8 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 13.6 0.5 64.1 60.4 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 13.3 0.4 61.5 58.6 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.0 11.5 0.6 67.5 62.6 7.6 8.3 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.6 11.3 0.5 64.6 60.5 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.6 9.5 0.6 69.6 63.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.2 13.6 0.5 63.6 60.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.4 9.3 0.5 64.3 60.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 11.7 0.5 65.1 60.8 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.4 10.1 0.5 64.5 60.3 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.1 10.7 0.5 63.8 59.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.3 10.1 0.5 63.6 59.4 8.5 8.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.7 9.9 0.5 65.2 60.2 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 11.5 0.3 58.9 56.3 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.8 12.5 0.9 76.5 68.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.9 11.8 10.5 0.5 65.3 60.5 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.5 13.4 0.6 67.0 62.5 11.4 12.0 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.0 9.9 9.4 0.5 63.9 59.6 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 13.5 0.5 63.6 60.0 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 6.1 6.0 7.5 0.5 65.0 59.9 5.1 5.6 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.4 12.7 0.4 62.5 59.3 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.7 13.2 0.5 65.0 60.6 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.8 13.2 0.5 62.5 59.1 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 11.3 0.4 61.8 58.4 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 12.2 0.4 61.8 58.9 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.3 9.8 0.5 64.2 59.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.2 12.8 0.4 60.5 57.9 11.1 11.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 0.7 70.9 64.7 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.7 8.6 0.5 64.2 59.5 7.5 8.2 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.2 13.6 0.5 62.6 59.4 11.3 11.8 12.4 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------