***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 11.9 12.1 0.8 63.8 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 10.9 11.3 11.9 0.6 61.5 60.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.3 12.9 11.9 0.7 62.3 61.2 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.1 10.4 1.4 76.9 74.5 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.0 10.3 1.1 71.3 69.3 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 8.9 9.2 8.5 1.4 77.4 75.1 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.7 11.2 12.0 0.7 61.8 60.7 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 3.6 3.7 7.9 0.9 68.5 66.7 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 10.6 10.8 10.6 0.9 69.5 67.2 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 47 53 100 10.4 10.5 8.8 0.9 68.1 65.9 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 10.1 10.3 9.6 0.9 69.1 67.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.5 8.6 0.9 68.9 67.3 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.1 8.8 1.1 73.8 71.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 10.4 10.6 10.2 0.4 57.0 56.1 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 12.0 12.6 12.0 1.9 84.5 81.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.4 9.5 1.1 73.3 71.4 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.0 11.6 11.7 0.7 63.3 61.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.7 7.9 0.7 64.7 62.5 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 10.8 11.1 11.9 0.6 61.3 60.2 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.3 5.8 0.8 66.6 64.4 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 9.8 10.5 11.7 0.9 66.5 65.0 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.6 11.6 0.6 60.5 59.3 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 10.3 10.7 11.7 0.6 61.6 60.4 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.0 10.4 10.0 0.6 61.8 60.2 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 10.9 11.1 11.3 1.1 68.7 67.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.8 8.3 1.0 71.4 69.7 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 49 51 100 11.7 11.7 11.6 0.9 65.6 64.3 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 9.9 10.3 11.0 1.6 80.0 77.5 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 7.3 8.0 7.2 0.7 65.8 63.0 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 10.8 11.2 12.1 0.6 61.1 60.1 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------