***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 11.2 12.4 -0.5 40.3 43.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.4 12.5 -0.3 44.3 45.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.9 12.2 -0.4 42.6 44.9 12.3 13.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.0 10.4 -0.3 43.0 46.3 7.2 8.5 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.3 9.9 10.2 -0.3 43.0 45.9 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.9 8.6 0.0 48.9 49.3 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.3 12.5 -0.4 43.1 45.1 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.7 8.4 -0.2 45.3 46.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.8 10.5 -0.3 44.2 46.1 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.7 9.1 -0.2 44.9 46.4 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.7 -0.2 44.6 46.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.7 9.3 -0.2 45.5 47.0 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.1 8.9 -0.1 46.5 47.5 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.4 -0.3 43.9 45.6 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.6 11.3 0.0 49.5 50.2 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.1 9.5 -0.2 45.6 47.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.7 11.7 12.3 -0.2 45.7 47.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.0 8.4 -0.2 45.3 46.4 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.5 12.4 -0.3 44.4 46.0 10.9 11.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.3 5.1 6.6 -0.2 46.0 46.4 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.7 11.5 -0.4 42.3 44.8 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.9 12.1 -0.2 45.4 46.5 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.1 12.0 -0.3 44.5 46.0 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.7 10.2 -0.3 44.6 46.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.8 10.9 -0.5 38.9 43.2 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.9 9.7 9.0 -0.2 45.4 46.0 9.1 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.1 11.7 -0.6 38.8 42.6 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.6 10.8 -0.2 46.6 48.5 9.0 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.9 7.6 -0.2 45.4 46.3 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.5 12.5 -0.4 43.1 45.0 10.8 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------