***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 13.4 14.3 0.7 62.6 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.1 14.4 0.9 66.6 60.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.5 14.0 0.7 63.1 58.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.1 9.5 12.2 0.7 63.4 59.3 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.5 11.9 0.6 62.3 58.2 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.3 10.2 0.9 66.5 61.8 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.0 14.4 0.9 65.9 60.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.2 10.0 0.7 64.1 58.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.6 12.3 12.3 0.7 63.2 58.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.2 10.8 0.7 63.7 58.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.0 11.3 0.6 62.5 57.9 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.2 10.9 0.6 62.6 57.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.4 10.4 0.6 62.6 58.6 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.8 12.2 0.6 61.0 56.3 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.5 13.0 1.0 68.9 63.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.4 11.1 0.6 62.6 58.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.4 14.3 1.0 67.7 61.8 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.9 10.1 0.7 63.7 58.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.0 14.3 0.9 65.9 60.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.1 8.3 0.8 65.1 58.9 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 13.3 0.7 62.5 58.6 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.5 14.1 0.9 66.3 60.2 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.5 13.9 0.8 64.1 58.3 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.3 12.0 0.6 62.0 57.2 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.6 12.8 0.6 61.3 58.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.0 10.6 0.7 63.3 59.0 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.7 13.5 0.6 61.5 58.3 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 12.5 0.8 65.6 60.5 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.3 9.3 0.7 64.3 58.2 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.2 14.5 0.9 65.5 60.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------