***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 13.6 15.3 0.6 61.8 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.4 15.4 0.9 65.5 61.7 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.9 15.2 0.7 63.3 59.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.6 13.1 0.5 61.4 58.9 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.4 12.9 0.6 62.1 59.3 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.0 10.8 0.4 57.9 55.8 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.4 15.4 0.9 65.3 61.7 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.1 11.0 0.5 61.4 58.2 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.5 13.3 0.7 64.0 60.5 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 0.6 63.1 59.6 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.0 12.3 0.5 61.1 58.3 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.3 11.8 0.4 59.7 57.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.4 11.2 0.3 57.2 55.1 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 13.4 0.7 62.9 59.7 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 0.7 64.1 60.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 11.9 0.4 58.5 56.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.6 15.3 1.0 67.9 63.7 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.0 11.2 0.7 64.6 60.4 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.3 15.4 0.8 65.2 61.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.0 9.2 0.6 63.9 59.5 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.5 14.4 0.6 62.6 59.4 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.0 15.1 0.9 67.5 63.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 15.0 0.8 64.5 60.7 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.6 13.2 0.7 64.1 60.3 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.7 13.7 0.5 60.9 58.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.9 11.4 0.3 57.1 54.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.1 14.5 0.6 61.1 58.6 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.3 13.3 0.5 61.0 58.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.7 10.4 0.7 63.9 60.0 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 15.5 0.8 64.3 60.8 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------