***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 22.7 21.6 -0.1 48.6 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 23.2 22.7 21.7 0.0 50.0 50.1 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.3 22.4 21.5 -0.3 46.3 47.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.2 19.5 0.5 57.5 56.6 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 23.3 23.0 19.9 0.1 50.8 50.9 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 21.8 22.1 18.0 0.7 59.6 59.0 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.2 21.6 0.0 49.4 49.5 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 10.9 10.8 18.0 0.2 53.1 53.0 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.1 20.7 -0.1 49.2 49.5 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 22.5 22.1 18.9 0.0 50.2 50.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 22.7 22.4 19.6 0.1 51.3 51.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 21.9 21.8 18.9 0.3 54.0 53.9 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 22.8 22.8 19.1 0.4 55.1 55.0 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.1 20.1 -0.5 43.4 44.5 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 24.3 24.3 21.7 1.2 68.9 66.6 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 23.5 23.4 19.5 0.3 54.5 54.3 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.1 21.5 0.2 52.0 51.6 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 22.1 21.5 18.0 -0.1 48.7 49.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.1 21.7 -0.1 48.7 49.1 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.1 16.0 0.2 53.3 53.1 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 23.0 22.2 21.3 -0.2 47.1 47.7 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.1 22.5 21.4 0.0 50.0 50.0 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.2 22.3 21.5 -0.3 46.7 47.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.6 21.7 19.9 -0.4 45.2 46.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 23.0 22.5 20.3 0.0 50.0 50.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 22.2 22.6 18.5 0.6 58.8 58.2 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.2 20.9 -0.1 48.9 49.1 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 23.2 23.7 20.5 0.8 61.8 60.5 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.7 17.2 0.0 49.6 50.0 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.3 21.8 -0.1 48.8 49.1 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------