***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 24.4 22.4 -0.4 44.8 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 21.8 24.1 22.8 0.1 50.9 50.1 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.7 22.6 -0.2 47.0 47.8 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.1 20.7 -0.4 44.5 45.8 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.6 20.8 -0.4 44.7 46.2 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.7 22.4 18.7 -0.2 46.7 46.7 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.7 23.6 22.6 0.0 49.5 49.4 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.0 11.9 19.2 -0.1 49.0 48.4 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.2 21.2 -0.3 45.7 46.9 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.3 23.2 20.0 -0.2 47.7 48.0 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.7 23.4 20.4 -0.3 46.1 46.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.6 20.0 -0.2 47.8 47.6 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.7 19.4 -0.2 46.8 46.9 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.7 21.1 -0.1 49.0 48.6 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.1 21.3 -0.1 48.1 47.9 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.3 24.0 20.0 -0.3 45.7 46.4 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.2 23.6 22.6 0.2 53.0 51.3 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 20.9 23.0 19.3 0.0 49.8 49.2 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.4 23.5 22.8 0.1 50.7 49.9 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.0 18.4 17.2 0.2 53.2 50.9 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.3 22.0 -0.4 44.8 46.4 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 21.6 24.1 22.5 0.2 53.0 51.0 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.8 22.6 0.0 49.6 49.1 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.1 21.0 -0.1 48.3 48.4 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.1 20.9 -0.5 43.3 45.4 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.2 23.1 19.3 0.0 49.3 48.3 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.7 23.1 21.6 -0.4 43.8 45.9 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.7 20.9 -0.3 45.7 46.4 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.8 18.1 18.4 0.1 51.6 50.1 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.7 22.8 -0.1 49.2 49.1 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------