***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 25.3 24.5 0.8 60.6 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.2 24.8 1.1 63.6 58.6 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 24.5 0.8 59.3 55.6 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.5 22.6 0.7 59.5 56.4 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.8 22.5 0.6 57.7 55.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.9 23.2 20.3 0.7 59.8 56.5 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.8 24.7 1.2 63.9 59.3 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.5 12.9 20.7 0.6 57.6 54.8 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.2 22.9 0.6 57.6 54.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.0 24.1 21.5 0.6 57.4 54.6 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.4 22.0 0.6 57.7 55.0 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.1 23.3 21.6 0.6 57.9 55.0 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.1 24.5 21.1 0.7 58.7 55.6 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.7 22.8 0.6 57.4 54.3 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.4 23.2 1.0 63.4 59.0 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.8 25.0 21.7 0.7 58.3 55.5 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 24.0 24.8 24.7 1.4 66.7 61.0 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.7 20.8 0.6 57.8 54.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.6 24.8 1.0 62.3 57.4 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 19.1 18.5 0.7 58.6 55.3 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.5 23.8 0.6 58.1 55.1 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.6 25.2 24.5 1.2 65.0 59.4 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.9 24.5 0.8 59.9 55.6 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.1 24.1 22.7 0.6 57.5 54.4 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.7 22.9 0.8 59.9 56.8 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.8 21.0 0.8 59.6 56.0 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.5 23.6 0.8 60.8 57.4 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.2 22.8 0.8 60.2 56.9 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 19.0 19.8 0.7 58.3 55.0 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.9 24.8 1.0 62.3 57.7 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------