***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 50.2 57.2 101.9 59.5 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 52.1 55.2 60.8 105.9 61.6 52.6 33.9 45.9 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 61.3 66.7 58.0 107.6 62.7 53.4 40.7 54.6 70.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 53.0 76.4 68.1 99.1 56.9 49.0 55.5 70.0 85.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 44.2 65.5 67.2 101.1 58.2 50.2 45.2 58.5 73.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 44.9 61.9 89.2 99.4 55.9 49.9 46.9 57.7 69.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 50.3 50.6 60.5 100.0 58.0 50.3 30.4 43.6 59.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 74.4 102.5 71.0 101.7 58.2 51.4 77.1 94.0 111.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 57.1 58.1 64.0 103.3 59.9 51.8 40.7 51.4 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 49.5 71.9 73.3 104.0 60.0 52.4 50.8 63.7 77.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 38.3 55.4 63.3 101.6 58.5 50.4 40.8 50.2 60.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 34.9 55.0 58.7 98.7 56.5 49.5 37.6 49.8 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 35.3 49.3 71.6 95.8 53.6 47.7 37.2 47.1 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 78.8 85.1 69.3 108.4 62.9 52.8 54.8 71.0 88.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 38.2 52.2 59.6 95.4 55.1 46.5 39.2 49.0 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 40.2 53.9 66.9 96.3 54.3 47.6 42.6 51.6 61.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 53.1 53.8 59.1 102.3 59.2 50.6 31.6 45.3 61.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 57.4 76.9 80.1 106.0 61.2 52.8 58.2 69.2 80.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 62.9 69.6 60.1 110.1 64.1 54.2 41.0 55.6 72.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 48.9 69.0 88.3 102.5 58.0 51.5 50.4 62.7 76.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 57.7 59.5 57.4 104.3 60.7 52.4 41.9 52.4 63.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 61.6 63.0 56.5 103.0 59.5 51.0 37.5 52.9 70.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 54.0 61.4 60.5 114.3 66.5 55.9 37.1 48.4 61.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 72.7 77.8 69.7 108.9 63.3 53.5 53.5 66.4 80.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 62.1 61.0 70.4 99.0 56.8 50.0 42.3 55.3 69.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 32.4 47.6 65.6 94.1 52.1 46.9 34.6 46.2 59.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 60.5 60.4 66.9 99.1 57.2 50.5 40.2 53.8 69.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 40.6 53.4 64.0 96.2 55.2 47.4 42.1 50.7 59.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 70.1 93.3 81.2 104.8 60.0 51.9 72.1 85.2 98.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 55.5 59.1 60.1 105.3 61.3 52.5 37.1 49.5 63.7 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------