***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 12.1 13.3 75.0 52.7 41.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.4 9.0 12.4 67.7 47.7 39.3 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.1 12.7 12.7 75.2 52.4 40.8 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.7 13.7 17.3 90.2 58.0 43.9 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.7 12.4 16.0 85.1 55.7 41.4 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.5 12.2 24.5 98.3 59.2 47.2 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.2 12.8 66.2 47.9 40.3 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.7 21.0 16.0 83.4 55.0 41.4 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.3 10.3 14.5 80.6 54.5 40.7 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.8 13.9 16.2 82.0 54.2 40.7 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.8 14.8 84.7 56.2 41.3 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.3 14.2 86.3 57.2 42.2 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.2 18.7 88.3 55.6 43.1 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.2 13.4 14.4 80.1 53.0 40.4 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.6 16.1 88.5 56.7 42.4 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.5 17.6 88.2 57.0 43.4 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.2 8.8 11.9 67.7 49.1 40.9 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.4 14.7 17.7 83.5 53.2 40.6 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.9 10.3 12.3 71.8 49.8 40.2 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 14.3 19.9 81.6 51.9 41.1 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.2 13.0 78.4 54.3 40.4 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.9 12.0 11.7 73.0 51.3 41.6 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.7 12.0 12.6 79.0 54.0 42.8 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.9 15.0 15.2 82.5 53.8 41.1 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.6 16.9 81.8 54.1 43.2 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.4 7.9 15.3 76.9 49.7 38.8 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.5 15.9 77.8 52.9 42.5 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.5 16.9 89.4 57.6 43.1 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.5 20.2 17.9 83.4 53.0 40.7 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.1 10.0 12.6 68.3 48.5 39.7 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------