***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 24.5 13.6 126.4 71.5 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 23.2 24.8 16.4 131.8 73.2 58.7 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.1 28.1 15.1 142.6 76.2 60.4 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.9 22.1 15.0 104.0 63.5 50.8 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.5 19.6 15.8 120.3 69.4 54.4 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.7 19.5 21.2 102.0 62.4 52.1 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.3 18.4 15.7 118.5 69.2 56.4 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 37.1 39.8 19.0 132.9 73.6 58.3 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.0 19.2 15.7 130.0 72.7 57.7 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.1 24.5 18.9 131.6 73.2 59.0 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.5 19.9 15.4 126.6 71.6 54.3 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.3 22.0 15.0 130.0 72.7 54.9 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.7 19.4 17.6 114.9 67.7 53.5 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 35.1 41.0 19.5 142.7 76.3 62.9 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.5 12.2 89.4 58.9 46.8 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.8 18.2 16.3 115.2 67.7 52.4 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.9 21.1 15.8 122.0 70.3 54.6 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 26.1 29.3 21.5 133.3 73.8 62.0 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 22.1 25.9 16.2 141.3 75.8 60.0 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.2 25.8 24.8 131.0 73.0 62.6 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.5 22.6 13.8 134.6 73.9 58.0 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.9 27.6 15.4 124.0 71.0 54.8 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 21.7 27.1 16.2 149.6 78.1 61.9 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 27.2 31.3 18.7 141.6 76.0 62.7 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.1 18.0 15.8 106.0 64.7 52.5 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.9 15.6 16.2 112.7 67.1 54.6 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.1 17.0 15.4 110.3 66.4 53.3 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.5 14.8 14.3 99.3 62.2 49.3 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 31.8 33.8 22.1 129.5 72.5 61.4 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 21.0 22.8 15.9 133.2 73.5 59.0 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------