***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 12.1 13.9 13.8 2.9 92.9 89.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 12.5 14.6 13.7 3.0 94.6 91.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.7 13.8 2.8 93.4 90.0 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 9.1 11.5 11.0 2.9 95.2 91.7 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 10.4 12.2 11.8 2.8 93.9 90.7 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 9.2 10.9 8.5 2.4 94.3 91.8 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 12.3 14.5 13.8 3.2 95.3 92.1 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 4.3 6.1 8.9 2.7 94.1 91.4 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.3 13.5 12.1 3.0 96.2 93.2 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 11.0 12.9 10.2 2.8 95.5 92.5 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 10.8 13.0 11.4 3.0 96.6 94.1 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 9.0 10.5 9.9 2.7 94.2 91.7 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 10.3 11.9 9.8 2.5 94.5 91.7 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 11.7 13.4 11.4 2.5 94.4 90.0 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 12.1 14.7 12.6 3.1 98.2 95.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 11.7 13.7 10.5 2.6 94.9 91.8 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 12.4 14.3 13.4 3.0 94.7 91.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 9.3 10.8 9.3 2.5 93.7 90.5 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 12.2 14.2 13.8 3.1 95.3 92.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 5.8 7.1 7.3 2.4 92.2 89.0 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 11.2 13.1 13.1 2.8 95.0 91.8 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 11.6 13.5 13.7 3.0 95.5 91.9 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 11.7 13.9 13.8 3.2 96.4 93.2 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 11.3 13.0 11.5 2.6 94.5 91.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 11.7 13.3 12.9 2.9 92.4 88.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 10.2 11.4 8.7 2.3 91.0 88.6 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 12.6 14.4 13.3 2.8 92.1 88.7 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 10.1 12.0 11.3 2.8 95.9 92.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 8.8 10.7 8.5 2.5 93.7 90.5 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 12.4 14.4 14.0 3.1 94.7 91.5 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------