***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.5 14.5 1.5 72.7 69.0 11.2 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.6 14.5 1.6 74.6 70.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 15.0 15.4 14.7 1.7 77.2 72.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.3 11.8 1.4 75.0 70.3 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.2 11.8 1.3 73.9 69.6 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.7 9.6 1.2 73.4 68.8 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.5 14.5 1.6 74.3 70.4 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.9 9.5 1.3 74.1 70.1 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.0 12.1 1.4 74.6 70.5 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.9 10.5 1.3 74.6 70.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.7 11.2 1.4 75.3 70.7 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.9 10.2 1.3 74.1 70.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.9 9.7 1.1 70.9 67.4 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.7 12.1 1.5 76.1 71.7 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 13.7 14.1 13.1 1.5 77.9 72.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.7 13.1 10.6 1.2 73.2 69.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.8 14.3 1.5 73.8 69.9 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.6 9.7 1.3 75.6 71.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 13.4 13.7 14.5 1.7 77.0 72.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.5 7.5 1.2 72.0 68.3 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.9 13.6 1.4 73.8 69.8 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 12.8 13.1 14.2 1.7 76.6 72.3 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.5 14.4 1.9 80.1 75.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.2 11.9 1.5 77.9 73.2 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 13.0 13.2 12.9 1.3 71.0 67.3 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.6 9.6 1.3 74.5 70.9 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.4 13.7 1.4 71.3 67.6 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.9 12.1 1.4 75.3 70.8 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.8 10.0 9.0 1.3 75.0 70.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 13.5 13.8 14.6 1.6 75.2 71.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------