***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.0 14.8 0.6 60.1 57.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.1 14.7 0.6 60.9 58.1 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.3 14.9 14.9 0.7 63.7 59.7 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 9.5 12.1 0.5 60.5 57.3 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.3 12.1 0.5 60.2 57.4 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.2 10.0 0.5 61.0 57.2 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.2 14.7 0.6 61.5 58.7 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.8 9.6 0.3 55.6 54.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.4 12.4 0.6 61.6 58.6 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.2 10.6 0.4 57.9 56.2 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.9 11.4 0.4 59.4 57.0 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.9 10.2 10.4 0.4 57.9 56.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.5 10.2 0.5 60.3 57.2 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.1 12.3 0.5 60.1 57.5 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.5 13.4 0.7 64.4 60.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.4 11.0 0.5 60.3 57.4 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.3 14.5 0.6 61.0 58.4 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.4 10.8 9.8 0.4 58.1 56.7 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.2 14.7 0.7 63.0 59.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.6 7.5 0.2 55.2 54.6 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.4 13.8 0.6 61.2 58.2 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.8 14.3 0.7 63.0 59.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.1 14.6 0.9 66.6 61.7 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 12.9 12.5 12.0 0.5 61.9 58.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.5 13.2 0.5 58.5 56.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.2 10.0 0.6 63.2 58.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.0 13.0 14.0 0.5 59.3 56.8 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.4 12.4 0.5 61.4 58.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.2 9.1 0.3 56.7 55.6 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.3 14.8 0.6 61.4 58.5 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------