***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 12.5 13.1 14.2 1.6 87.6 82.2 11.1 11.7 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 12.7 13.4 14.1 1.7 89.0 83.8 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 14.3 15.1 14.3 1.7 89.6 83.9 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 9.4 10.1 11.3 1.4 87.2 81.2 7.6 8.3 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 11.0 11.5 11.7 1.4 87.2 81.4 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 9.7 10.1 9.0 1.2 84.1 78.2 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 12.6 13.3 14.2 1.8 89.6 84.3 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 4.8 5.3 9.1 1.3 85.6 80.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 11.8 12.5 12.0 1.5 89.7 83.8 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 11.7 12.3 10.2 1.4 87.6 82.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 11.5 12.1 11.1 1.4 88.9 83.3 10.2 10.7 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 9.7 10.1 9.9 1.3 86.2 81.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 11.0 11.4 9.6 1.1 84.1 78.7 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 12.5 13.0 11.7 1.4 87.7 82.6 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 12.8 13.5 12.7 1.6 90.7 84.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 12.1 12.6 10.4 1.2 85.5 80.0 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 12.8 13.5 13.9 1.7 88.9 83.8 11.4 12.0 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 10.3 10.8 9.4 1.3 86.7 81.6 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 12.6 13.4 14.2 1.9 90.6 85.4 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 6.3 6.7 7.2 1.1 83.7 78.8 5.1 5.6 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 11.8 12.4 13.3 1.5 88.1 82.5 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 12.0 12.7 13.9 1.8 90.5 85.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 12.3 13.2 14.1 2.0 92.9 87.8 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 11.9 12.6 11.6 1.5 89.1 83.5 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 12.2 12.8 12.8 1.5 85.9 80.4 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 10.6 11.1 9.1 1.2 83.8 78.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 12.7 13.4 13.5 1.5 86.2 80.8 11.1 11.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 10.7 11.2 11.6 1.4 86.7 80.9 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 9.1 9.7 8.7 1.3 86.4 81.5 7.5 8.2 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 12.7 13.4 14.3 1.8 89.5 84.3 11.3 11.8 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------