***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 25.3 27.2 23.9 3.1 89.1 84.9 21.0 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 25.2 27.2 24.4 3.4 89.6 85.9 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 25.0 26.5 23.8 2.9 86.0 82.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 17.5 18.4 19.7 2.2 82.2 77.6 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 24.9 25.6 21.1 2.1 79.2 75.5 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 22.8 22.7 17.5 1.1 65.9 64.0 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 24.7 26.5 24.2 3.4 89.5 85.7 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 12.1 11.9 17.9 1.1 66.7 65.0 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 24.2 25.2 22.2 2.3 81.1 77.5 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.7 23.9 19.6 1.6 71.8 69.4 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 24.1 24.5 21.1 1.8 75.5 72.5 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 23.1 23.2 19.2 1.5 71.2 69.0 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.2 20.0 1.4 70.5 68.1 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.2 22.0 2.1 78.1 75.1 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 24.7 26.0 22.4 2.4 85.5 79.9 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.8 25.1 20.1 1.6 73.3 70.4 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 24.3 26.2 24.2 3.6 89.7 86.0 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.2 18.5 1.3 68.6 66.8 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 24.7 26.8 24.4 3.5 90.4 86.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 17.2 17.7 15.8 0.8 61.5 60.6 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 24.6 25.7 23.3 2.5 82.6 78.7 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 25.0 26.9 24.1 3.4 89.5 85.5 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 25.1 27.3 24.5 3.7 91.4 87.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 24.0 24.5 21.7 2.0 77.1 74.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 24.5 26.0 22.4 2.8 86.4 81.7 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 23.4 23.5 18.1 1.4 69.9 67.9 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 24.5 26.0 23.2 3.0 87.8 83.6 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.2 20.4 1.9 79.1 74.7 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 18.0 18.0 17.6 1.1 65.7 64.3 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 24.9 26.7 24.3 3.3 89.4 85.5 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------