***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 26.0 27.7 24.5 2.9 84.9 78.7 21.8 23.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 26.5 28.3 24.8 3.2 87.1 81.0 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 26.3 27.9 24.7 3.0 84.1 78.5 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 18.6 19.3 20.9 2.0 76.4 71.1 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 26.2 27.0 22.1 2.2 76.9 71.9 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 24.3 23.9 18.7 1.1 63.9 61.2 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 26.0 27.7 24.6 3.0 86.1 79.8 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.8 19.5 1.5 68.7 65.2 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 25.7 26.7 23.0 2.4 79.1 73.8 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.7 20.9 2.0 73.4 69.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 25.7 26.3 22.0 2.0 74.6 69.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 24.5 24.7 20.6 1.7 71.0 67.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 25.6 25.7 20.7 1.5 69.4 65.7 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.9 22.7 2.5 78.1 73.7 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 26.1 26.8 22.8 2.0 77.4 71.4 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.5 21.2 1.7 72.0 67.8 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 25.8 27.6 24.7 3.3 87.2 80.9 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 24.8 25.1 20.1 1.9 72.0 68.1 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 25.9 27.8 25.0 3.4 87.9 81.9 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.6 19.5 17.3 1.3 65.5 62.9 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 26.0 27.0 24.0 2.5 80.1 74.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 26.3 28.2 24.5 3.3 86.7 80.5 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 26.4 28.6 25.1 3.6 88.6 82.8 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 25.2 26.2 22.6 2.4 77.7 73.2 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 25.9 27.1 22.8 2.5 81.4 75.3 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 24.7 24.9 19.6 1.5 70.0 65.7 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 25.9 27.3 23.7 2.7 83.3 77.1 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.3 21.4 1.8 73.5 68.6 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 19.8 19.9 19.1 1.6 69.4 66.1 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 26.2 28.0 24.8 3.1 86.5 80.4 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------