***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 25.6 26.0 25.0 2.2 75.2 70.7 22.4 23.8 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.2 25.1 2.4 76.4 71.9 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 25.7 26.0 25.2 2.2 73.7 69.2 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.2 18.6 22.4 1.8 71.8 67.6 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 25.6 25.7 22.7 1.6 68.1 64.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 22.9 23.5 20.0 1.1 63.0 60.2 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 25.3 25.7 25.0 2.3 75.6 71.5 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.2 20.4 1.0 61.1 58.6 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 25.0 25.1 23.1 1.7 68.5 64.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.6 21.4 1.3 64.0 61.0 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.2 25.0 22.2 1.4 65.4 62.2 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.1 23.7 21.6 1.2 63.5 60.4 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 24.2 24.9 20.9 1.2 63.6 60.6 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.3 22.6 1.4 65.0 62.3 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.5 23.6 2.2 76.8 71.4 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 24.8 25.6 21.8 1.4 65.5 62.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 25.1 25.6 25.0 2.5 76.1 72.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.1 20.8 1.1 62.1 59.6 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 25.2 25.7 25.3 2.5 76.4 71.7 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.1 17.9 0.8 58.6 56.7 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.5 24.2 1.9 70.5 66.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 25.7 26.0 24.7 2.3 74.6 70.7 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 25.7 26.2 25.2 2.4 75.4 70.6 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 24.8 24.8 22.7 1.5 66.2 63.1 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 25.5 26.0 23.2 2.1 74.5 70.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 24.4 24.4 21.0 1.5 67.8 63.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.7 24.1 2.2 75.0 70.6 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 25.8 26.0 22.6 1.7 70.6 66.5 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.1 19.7 0.9 59.8 57.8 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 25.6 26.1 25.1 2.4 76.0 71.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------