***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.4 25.2 1.2 65.9 61.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 26.2 25.8 25.2 1.3 65.8 61.5 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 26.0 25.6 25.5 1.3 65.7 61.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.0 22.8 1.1 63.9 59.3 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.6 23.2 0.9 61.6 58.0 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.4 23.6 20.5 0.6 58.1 55.2 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 25.8 25.3 25.1 1.1 64.6 61.0 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 21.0 0.5 55.9 53.8 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.6 25.0 23.6 1.0 62.5 58.7 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.6 22.0 0.7 59.0 56.0 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.1 22.8 0.8 60.3 57.0 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.8 22.2 0.6 57.7 55.0 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.9 21.4 0.6 57.2 54.6 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.9 23.1 0.7 59.1 56.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.1 23.9 1.3 68.0 61.8 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.7 22.3 0.8 59.7 56.5 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.0 25.0 1.2 64.7 60.9 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.9 21.4 0.6 56.8 54.5 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.7 25.4 25.4 1.4 67.1 62.1 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 18.8 18.5 0.2 52.5 51.3 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.3 24.6 1.1 63.0 59.2 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 26.0 25.6 24.8 1.1 64.1 60.4 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 26.1 25.8 25.5 1.5 68.1 62.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.5 23.2 0.8 60.2 57.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.6 23.5 1.2 65.1 60.4 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.8 21.5 0.9 61.1 57.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 25.6 25.3 24.3 1.2 65.2 60.9 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.9 23.0 1.0 63.5 59.0 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.9 20.3 0.4 54.4 52.9 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.6 25.3 1.3 65.9 61.6 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------