***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 25.0 26.2 24.7 2.4 88.7 82.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 25.3 26.5 24.9 2.6 89.1 83.3 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 25.2 26.2 24.8 2.3 87.0 81.0 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 17.6 18.4 21.5 1.8 82.2 76.5 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 25.1 25.8 22.3 1.7 80.3 74.7 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 23.3 23.3 19.2 1.0 69.0 65.2 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 24.8 26.0 24.7 2.5 88.5 82.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 12.6 12.8 19.7 1.0 69.0 65.0 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.3 23.0 1.9 82.1 76.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 24.2 24.5 21.0 1.4 74.5 69.7 22.4 23.2 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 24.5 25.0 22.0 1.5 77.1 71.9 22.6 23.5 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 23.4 23.7 20.9 1.2 72.6 68.1 21.8 22.6 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 24.5 24.8 20.7 1.2 71.9 67.5 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 24.8 25.3 22.6 1.7 78.1 73.4 22.8 23.7 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 25.2 26.1 23.2 2.0 85.8 79.5 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 25.1 25.6 21.3 1.4 75.2 70.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 24.6 25.9 24.7 2.6 88.9 83.2 22.2 23.2 24.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 23.6 23.9 20.2 1.2 71.5 67.3 22.0 22.8 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 24.7 26.0 25.0 2.7 89.8 84.0 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.2 18.7 17.4 0.8 63.8 61.0 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 24.9 25.7 24.0 2.0 83.7 77.9 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 25.1 26.3 24.5 2.5 87.9 82.2 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 25.1 26.5 25.1 2.8 90.4 84.6 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 24.2 24.7 22.6 1.7 78.7 73.6 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 25.0 26.0 23.0 2.1 86.6 80.4 22.7 23.7 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 23.9 24.2 20.1 1.3 74.3 69.3 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 24.8 25.8 23.9 2.3 87.8 81.5 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 25.1 25.6 21.8 1.6 79.9 74.4 23.2 24.1 24.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 18.7 18.8 19.2 1.0 67.9 64.5 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 25.1 26.3 24.9 2.5 88.9 83.0 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------