***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 4.9 8.9 60.8 44.8 35.0 2.9 6.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.3 7.3 57.4 42.9 34.1 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.2 9.5 67.7 47.6 36.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 16.6 16.8 102.6 62.0 48.5 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.5 15.2 97.5 60.1 47.2 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.9 22.5 121.3 69.4 58.6 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.5 7.2 57.0 43.6 34.1 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 26.4 26.4 23.7 122.7 69.9 59.4 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.5 14.8 92.6 57.9 45.3 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.7 21.6 111.7 65.8 53.4 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.3 12.7 17.3 110.7 65.7 51.5 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.6 18.9 118.6 68.5 57.7 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.6 21.3 127.2 71.6 59.2 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 9.8 14.8 81.1 52.6 41.8 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 14.7 15.5 119.0 69.2 54.4 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.9 18.5 121.6 69.8 57.0 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.2 7.5 59.4 44.6 34.3 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.3 23.0 110.3 64.6 53.2 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.2 8.4 8.2 62.9 45.6 36.0 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 16.6 19.2 28.7 139.5 76.4 65.5 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.3 9.4 12.1 80.3 53.0 41.1 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.6 8.4 65.5 47.6 36.2 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.0 9.7 70.8 49.3 39.0 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.4 12.5 15.2 86.2 55.1 43.3 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.7 9.2 12.4 72.8 49.6 39.5 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.8 15.9 23.5 149.5 78.2 63.9 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.4 8.0 10.9 68.5 48.1 38.4 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.6 18.4 118.8 68.7 54.0 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.4 21.4 24.1 116.5 67.4 56.3 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.2 7.9 60.6 45.0 35.9 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------